CORRECT APPLICATION OF BAYE’S THEOREM

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we present and discuss three well-known examples of misapplication of the notion of conditional probability. In each example, we present the problem along with a published and/or well-known incorrect - but seemingly plausible - solution. We then give a careful treatment of the correct solution, in large part to show how careful application of basic probability rules can help students to spot and avoid these mistakes. With each example, we also hope to illustrate the importance & need for other display tools, specifically the tree diagram and sample space Venn diagram, when contingency tables do not readily apply i.e. for probability problems not involving data.

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